Dear All,

I thought that last Friday’s corona-missive would be longer than most, given how much ground there was to cover in the first. Not so, as you see here.

Your many questions and topic requests—input that also included short- and long-term business plans and impressive Gantt charts, I should say—destine this second corona-missive to be lengthy as well. The overarching interest is in what TCNJ is thinking and doing, and how we are approaching decision-making.

Before I turn to these important topics, though, I offer an encomium for extraordinary TCNJ acts of service, compassion and creativity. From Alumni Relations drawing on TSC/TCNJ alumni to develop webinars and the #seniorsstrong campaign to Admissions teaming up with the deans and Communications, Marketing, and Brand Management to quickly create a comprehensive virtual Accepted Students Day to our Instructional Design team furnishing faculty with expertise, support, and positive vibes as they transition hundreds of courses to distance learning mode, TCNJ has come through spectacularly. Thank you for your immense productivity and selflessness in these times.

Deserving great praise, too, is our small but mighty band holding the fort on campus in staggered shifts. Thank you to Campus Police; the staffs of Student Affairs (including Residential Education, which is supporting the 25 students who remain in the residence halls), Building Services, and the Mail Room; Central Utility Plant operators; building tradespeople; groundkeepers; and construction managers. We salute and thank you for sustaining campus operations.

Here, now, to updates and queries.

TCNJ Coronavirus. At the start of the pandemic, we reported and monitored TCNJ personnel who had tested positive for COVID-19. These included Professor Craig Hollander and two adjunct professors. I am pleased to report that these faculty are healthy and back to teaching. Although we are no longer formally soliciting information on cases—we are well beyond the 14-day period since most left campus on March 17—we received reports in recent weeks from several students who tested positive. We send our most positive energy and best wishes to all in the TCNJ family affected by the virus as patient, caregiver, or loved one.

What’s the outlook for TCNJ? The short answer is “manageable for now and likely quite challenging for the future.” Let me elaborate.

The near-term is always more certain. In corona-missive #1, I forecast a current year (FY20) budget shortfall of $5.4 million. With continued scrubbing of accounts and tremendous belt-tightening by all units implementing hiring and spending freezes, we have reduced the shortfall to $4.7 million as of today. To put this in context, our annual budget is $256 million, making the shortfall roughly 1.8 percent of our budget. We would rather end the year in surplus, of course, but under these circumstances, the deficit is modest and financially wieldy. As previously noted, we will draw upon reserves to finance any end-of-year shortfall and balance the budget.

As we look further out, however, the uncertainties multiply and the forecast is sobering. Those attending the Higher Ed 101 sessions in February know that our revenues rest largely on enrollment (tuition, fees, room and board) and state appropriations. Both of these major economic drivers are uncertain for FY21, the year beginning July 1, 2020 and running through June 30, 2021. A positive sign is that, as measured by deposits from the incoming Class of 2024 and course registration for continuing students, we are currently tracking at or above previous-year levels. It is early, though, in the enrollment cycle and we do not know how new and returning students will react to not-yet-made decisions about fall semester, nor to financial and health related issues their families may be facing. Add to this the state’s uncertain fiscal picture and potential continuation of its austerity funding for colleges and universities (only 50 percent of expected operating support), and you can appreciate why we are preparing multiple scenarios and budgets for FY21.

Will we be continuing with remote learning in Fall 2020? That’s the $64,000 Question. We do not yet know. It depends largely on the timing and course of the coronavirus, with operational issues, risk factors, and employee/student preferences in the mix.

Such uncertainties are why we are developing scenarios, each associated with different assumptions, choices, and budgetary implications. Consider these basic possibilities for Fall 2020:

• We return to campus fully and remain operational for the full semester
• We return to campus fully, but a second wave of the virus requires campus closure within the semester
• We return to campus in stages (based on various criteria) with both remote and face-to-face instruction
• We do not return to campus and operate in remote education mode through the semester
• We do not return to campus in August, but defer our return until a later date to be determined. (various possible prediction dates, including mid-semester or January)

To each of these scenarios we will attach predictions (e.g., number of incoming and returning students, housing occupancy, state funding assumptions) to calculate a budgetary implication.

I should say that our early scenario planning for FY21 shows deficits, often large. As a result—and consistent with prudent planning—we will explore and potentially implement a range of options on the expense side, from refinancing debt and canceling management raises to reducing non-core activities and construction. Looking further out, we will also explore strategic partnerships and other arrangements to provide long-term stability potentially with new markets, operating models, and service delivery.

Anatomy of Decision Making. Throughout this missive I have been using “we” as the agents of our decision-making. Who is we? you have asked.

A number of groups are involved in this work. Their work is thoughtful and contributes greatly to our planning. To not make an already long message longer, I will provide a snapshot of the role of each, but would be happy to elaborate further in a future corona-missive if there is interest:

• The Board of Trustees, our governing body, has the ultimate fiduciary authority and will make final decisions on our FY21 budget, including tuition, fee, room and board levels. The Board will hold a Zoom-enabled public hearing on May 5 to take input on these topics
• Cabinet, which is composed of the vice presidents, general counsel, chief of staff, and me, continues to be the locus for budget and policy planning. We are now meeting twice weekly, and have opened select meetings to include invited guests from campus, who share their perspective on the issues before us.
• The Council on Strategic Planning and Priorities is currently developing updated budget priorities for eventual approval by the Board of Trustees. It is also discussing and reaching out for input on a question key to budget planning in financially challenged times: “What do we hold most dear?”
• The Council of Deans and the Council for Faculty Affairs have been instrumental in shaping academic responses to the coronavirus, including the P/F grading policy. CFA is currently working on coronavirus-driven review of promotion and tenure guidelines.
• The College Emergency Response Team, co-led by Interim Provost Keep and Chief of Police Grant, has been meeting regularly throughout this crisis. Its work has been instrumental in shaping campus decisions, operations and communications.
• The Faculty Senate, Staff Senate, and Student Government continue to play their vital roles in gathering input and influencing campus decision-making.

If you have an idea or perspective to share, please provide it to your elected representatives, supervisors, deans, vice presidents, or me directly.

And the Beat Goes On. The content and length of this missive make me hesitate to add more to the communication. Let me simply foreshadow for next week, then, that awesome work is happening on parallel and perpendicular tracks. The subject headings, which include the senior art exhibit, commencement, culminating events and celebrations of scholarship and leadership, insights from the Campus Climate Survey, and exciting new collaborations and organization in data governance and institutional research, offer evidence of normalcy in an abnormal time. These plus your questions still in the queue will be the basis for next week’s corona-missive.

Yours with gratitude and determination,

Kathryn A. Foster

President